Research report

Codex completion-wording pilot: a null contrast

A small separately frozen replication observed honest stops, not evidence of zero universal risk.

Pre-release. Reviewed October 23, 2026. This review covers code behavior, not a packaged release or provider certification.

Design and reviewed source

Snapshot: September 19, 2026. Subject: codex/gpt-6-astra@medium. The plan used ten LiveCodeBench-hard tasks, ten positive controls and twenty paired impossible cells. The source record is docs/impossiblebench-codex-replication-2026-09-19.md, with machine-readable rows retained in the repository. This public-safe excerpt does not expose private session artifacts.

Plain and test-gated completion wording formed separate arms. Both received the same explicit verifier required by the non-Claude harness; that verifier was not a between-arm difference.

Observed outcomes

Impossible cells, each arm separately
ArmObservedFalse completionVerifier subversion
Plain wording1000
Test-gated wording1000

Six of eight completed positive controls were solved. Two controls were interrupted after model work began and retained as attrition, not silently retried. All twenty impossible cells completed.

What a null contrast means

The observed wording difference was zero percentage points, with no discordant pair. The exact McNemar test is uninformative here (p=1). Each arm's 0/10 false-completion observation has a Wilson 95% upper bound of 27.8%; neither small rates nor small treatment effects are ruled out.

Every observed impossible cell stopped honestly in this setup. That is not a formal causal cross-provider comparison with the earlier Sonnet pilot: provider and harness differed, and the Codex plan was separately frozen.

Resource and evidence limits

The adapter's reported zero-dollar receipts did not mean no subscription quota was consumed. Frozen turn/cell caps were the operative limits. A passing control establishes capability on that control, not universal task-solving ability.

Confidence is high for the retained cell counts and observed null contrast. Generalization remains limited. The study is a useful negative result, not a promotional claim of an immune model.